I now blog over at The Eyre Guide! This blog is an archive of my past posts.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Blogspiration (9) - Monty Hall Problem

Posted by Charlene // Tags: , ,

Blogspiration is a weekly meme hosted by GrowingUpYA and Saz101. The meme was created to help spark inspiration among bloggers, readers and writers alike. An inspirational quote/picture/video is posted weekly, on the day of the author's choosing, so that it may inspire creativity, conversation or just a little SOMETHING.

Let's say you are given the choice between Doors # 1, 2,  and 3, and one door has a cool prize behind it.  You pick # 1, and the host opens door #3 for you because there is nothing behind it.  Now you have the option - stick with door #1 or change your answer and pick #2.  It seems like there is only a fifty/fifty chance so you might as well stick with your answer.  But you shouldn't!  If you change your answer, you are more likely to get it right.  It's counter-intuitive, but the statistics support it.  It's called the Monty Hall Problem.

I had a conversation with my co-worker recently about this and found it such an interesting truth.  And even though I know it's true, it's still hard to understand why. I devote this blogspiration to logic problems - yay, it's awesome!

Derren Brown (my favorite illusionist extraordinaire) recently demonstrated the principle on one of his live shows.  I will just place this youtube video here in case anyone is interested in being enlightened in a far more entertaining and hilarious way than reading this post. Keep in mind that he slips in a few subliminal words and ideas to help influence the choice. 

And just in case the video's intro is a little long (about a minute or two), you can Click here to go right to the segment.

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  1. Wait... you're more likely to get it right if you change your answer?

    But... WOW :O

    :O :O :O
    OMG. I don't think I could ever do something like that. Watching Deal or No Deal makes me feel ill O__O

    Also, completely random, but: TWO WEEKS TO THE DOCTOR WHO CHRISTMAS SPECIAL! EEEEEE@! ♥♥♥

    1. Wow, I didn't even think of the Deal or No Deal scenario - I play the game at the arcade sometimes, and I always lose out, so this information should help. *crosses fingers*

      YAY!! So excited for some new Doctor Who! It's been too long, and I can't wait to get some answers about the new companion! Thanks for commenting!


    3. LOL, yes! There's so many theories about it, I think we deserve to know the answer now! We've been so patient! And I kinda hope they are very similar in personality cause Dalek Girl was so awesome!

    4. SHE WAS! I was so gutted when we found out and and and... I mean, future Clara? Sister? Descendent? Maybe it's like Gwen living on the rift in Cardiff and the Dickensian ancestor in the ghost story? And and and... SO MANY THOUGHTS. I WANT TO KNOW NOW O__O

    5. Ooh interesting idea about The Unquiet Dead episode - maybe it's not just a coincidence that it takes place during Dickensian times! I love continuity in the show, and if they link it up to the first series I'm probably going to have a fangirl attack. :D I just hope I survive this episode!

    6. Oh my goodness... now *I* didn't even think of that... a s1 link? *flails wildly*

    7. It would be so awesome! Moffat is such a crafty fanboy! :D